Predictions 2006, A Review
As I mentioned in a previous post, Democrats had five big races to target in Ohio this election - Governor, Senator, Secretary of State, 15th and 18th Districts. Four of the five went to the Dems, with one (the 15th), at least at this point, appearing to stay Republican, but with a recount to come. These were not predictions so much as expectations and hopes. Predictions got made on the Donewaiting messageboard in this post, and I’m not ashamed to say that in seven state races (Gov, SoS, AG, Treas, Aud, Supreme Court seats) I got five right, I picked three out of four issues correctly, and in the House races I went 18 for 18. Here’s the bigger prediction that I’m rather proud of - that the Dems would gain 5-6 Senate seats (6 actual), 25-27 House seats (29 actual) and 2-4 Governor races (6 actual), and that they wouldn’t loose a single seat to the Republicans. My numbers were optimistic but not too high, and they were exceeded, and my caveat about not loosing a single seat ended up coming true.
For comparison sake, I decided to check out some right leaning blogs to see what their pre-election predictions were. Here’s a round up.
Right Angle Blog/Steven J Kelso Jr - Predicted Republicans would win House by 2 and Senate by 1, that Blackwell would lose by 5 points, Dewine would hold his seat with a 5-10 point win, Issues 2-3 would fail but 4-5 would pass, Montgomery would win AG, too close to call on Auditor, Brunner would win SoS, Cordray would win Treas, and that all House races would come out as they did but that the 18th was too close to call.
Analysis - Wow, that’s worse than Artie Lange picking NFL games. Basically, except for House races, whatever Kelso picks, go oppo.
The Redhawk Review/Ben - Predicted Republicans would control Senate 52-48 and pickup 17 House seats, Dewine would win by 2 and Strickland by 8, Brunner would win SoS, Montgomery AG, Cordray Treas and Taylor Auditor. Picked Cupp and O’Donnell for OSC, picked House races 1-3 correctly and Issues 2-5 correctly.
Analysis - While doing better with the local stuff, the attachment to holding onto the Senate and limiting Dem gains in the House didn’t stack up with the reality of multiple pre-election polls. Professional, non-partisan pollsters like Chuck Todd and Larry Sabato saw this coming, why couldn’t they?
For comparison sake, I decided to check out some right leaning blogs to see what their pre-election predictions were. Here’s a round up.
Right Angle Blog/Steven J Kelso Jr - Predicted Republicans would win House by 2 and Senate by 1, that Blackwell would lose by 5 points, Dewine would hold his seat with a 5-10 point win, Issues 2-3 would fail but 4-5 would pass, Montgomery would win AG, too close to call on Auditor, Brunner would win SoS, Cordray would win Treas, and that all House races would come out as they did but that the 18th was too close to call.
Analysis - Wow, that’s worse than Artie Lange picking NFL games. Basically, except for House races, whatever Kelso picks, go oppo.
The Redhawk Review/Ben - Predicted Republicans would control Senate 52-48 and pickup 17 House seats, Dewine would win by 2 and Strickland by 8, Brunner would win SoS, Montgomery AG, Cordray Treas and Taylor Auditor. Picked Cupp and O’Donnell for OSC, picked House races 1-3 correctly and Issues 2-5 correctly.
Analysis - While doing better with the local stuff, the attachment to holding onto the Senate and limiting Dem gains in the House didn’t stack up with the reality of multiple pre-election polls. Professional, non-partisan pollsters like Chuck Todd and Larry Sabato saw this coming, why couldn’t they?